Archive for the Energy Category

Change in the Weather (UPDATED)

Posted in Bush Administration, Disasters, Energy with tags , , , on September 13, 2008 by John Stodder

UPDATE:  Well, maybe Ike won’t be such a big deal, politically.  Apparently, estimates of the 20-foot storm surge didn’t prove out. From Dr. Jeff Masters’ blog on Weather Underground:

Although Ike caused heavy damage by flooding Galveston with a 12-foot storm surge, the city escaped destruction thanks to its 15.6-foot sea wall (the wall was built 17 feet high, but has since subsided about 2 feet). The surge was able to flow into Galveston Bay and flood the city from behind, but the wall prevented a head-on battering by the surge from the ocean side. Galveston was fortunate that Ike hit the city head-on, rather than just to the south. Ike’s highest storm surge occurred about 50 miles to the northeast of Galveston, over a lightly-populated stretch of coast. Galveston was also lucky that Ike did not have another 12-24 hours over water. In the 12 hours prior to landfall, Ike’s central pressure dropped 6 mb, and the storm began to rapidly organize and form a new eyewall. If Ike had had another 12-24 hours to complete this process, it would have been a Category 4 hurricane with 135-145 mph winds that likely would have destroyed Galveston. The GFDL model was consistently advertising this possibility, and it wasn’t far off the mark. It was not clear to me until late last night that Ike would not destroy Galveston and kill thousands of people. Other hurricane scientists I conversed with yesterday were of the same opinion.

As of now, the death toll is unknown, but it is early to speculate other than to say, as Dr. Sessions says above that, thankfully, it won’t come close to the “thousands” many anticipated.  To be sure, this is a big disaster.  Ike will be very expensive.  Early indications, however, are that the damage to the region’s energy facilities isn’t extensive.

The original post follows.

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Oil as an Aphrodisiac

Posted in Bush Administration, Energy, Ethics with tags , , , on September 11, 2008 by John Stodder
Hubba-Hubba!

Hubba-Hubba!

The political angle of the scandal at the Mineral Management Service’s royalty collection office in Denver, as articulated by Sen. Ron Wyden (D.-OR):

“On the eve of Congress starting this big debate you’ve got a horror story of mismanagement and misconduct in programs that are going to be a key part of the discussion,” Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said in an interview, adding that it can’t help but influence the debate.

And by Sens. Bill Nelson (D.-Fla.), and Charles Schumer (D.-NY):

“This is why we must not allow Big Oil’s agenda to be jammed through Congress,” said Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., who strongly opposes any expansion of offshore drilling, especially closer to Florida. He said the report “shows the oil industry holds shocking sway over the administration and even key federal employees.”

“This IG report has it all — sex, drugs and the Bush administration officials once again in cahoots with Big Oil,” said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., whose Joint Economic Committee released a report last year claiming the Minerals Management Service has failed to collect millions of dollars in oil royalties.

Really, Senator Nelson?  This is why?  Because offshore oil gets parties started?

A curious thing about this scandal.  While I certainly find it titillating to imagine sexy Big Oil executives having their way with doughy Interior Dept. bureaucrats, I don’t yet see any allegations of bribery.  The government staff accepted gifts and side gigs, and that’s very serious. But did the U.S. lose money?

Ending Oil Dependence in 10 Years: Is it “Practical?”

Posted in Barack Obama, Energy, Sarah Palin with tags on September 9, 2008 by John Stodder
Pollster and pundit Douglas Schoen

Pollster and pundit Douglas Schoen

This blog is nonpartisan, and I am personally an environmentalist, just to get that out of the way.  I cringe, however, when I read statements like this:

While this kind of post-partisan talk has defined the Obama campaign thus far, until now he had been unable to effectively balance his message of change with concrete policy proposals. This is no longer the case. Obama used his speech to “spell out exactly what that change would mean” in his administration.

This included a plan to eliminate capital gains taxes for small businesses, the implementation of higher fuel efficiency standards for cars, and a plan to end American oil dependence in 10 years. All of this was underscored by a reminder of the importance of individual responsibility.

In other words, he put forward practical, nondogmatic policies.

(Italics all mine.) This piece appeared in the NY Daily News, and was linked by Real Clear Politics, a popular aggregator of political news and commentary. The writer is Douglas Schoen, the erstwhile partner of Mark Penn.  With Penn, Schoen was one of the pollsters responsible for keeping Bill Clinton focused on the middle path during most of his presidency.  He is extremely intelligent and successful but like most political operatives, he apparently sees policy as just a bunch of words and ideas that cause voters to react one way or the other.

So maybe he doesn’t comprehend the scale of the challenge encased in his throwaway lines claiming that a “plan to end American oil dependence in 10 years” is “practical.”  Practical?  First of all, what “plan?”   Obama actually has not promised what Schoen claims he has promised. In his acceptance speech, he promised only to end America’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil in 10 years, which would be no small feat and can only be accomplished by pursuing aggressive domestic oil exploration of a kind Obama has thus far rejected.  His detailed energy plan doesn’t even go that far, promising to “(r)educe our dependence on foreign oil and reduce oil consumption overall by at least 35 percent, or 10 million barrels of oil, by 2030.”  As is happening a lot for Obama, some of his most ardent supporters misrepresent him, especially on the energy issue.

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The Washington Post Smells Gas…

Posted in Energy, Sarah Palin with tags , , , on September 8, 2008 by John Stodder

…coming from Gov. Sarah Palin’s Alaska.  This editorial chronicles her most noteworthy achievement and her primary credential for national office — her breaking of a natural gas pipeline impasse.  It tells the story of how she used the issue to topple incumbent Gov. Frank Murkowski, and then engaged in brinkmanship with three big oil companies to get the project moving.

The Post captures the bigger, underlying issue, which one can hope Palin’s prominence will publicize:  The massive public choice facing this country over how its rising natural gas needs will be met:

Ms. Palin is indeed correct about the need to tap the 35 trillion cubic feet of natural gas under Alaska’s North Slope, the same region whose oil made the state wealthy but which has begun to run dry. Natural gas demand is growing rapidly in North America, and low-carbon natural gas is better for the environment than coal or petroleum. This means that the outlook for gas prices is relatively bullish, making the economics of an Alaska pipeline more favorable than ever before. Yet for decades the idea has been deadlocked by federal and state politics — and unless the United States can install a pipeline to transport Alaska’s gas soon, companies may commit to foreign sources of liquefied natural gas, thus locking in long-term dependency on imports.

Yup.  Some big players are trying to build liquefied natural gas receipt terminals along the west coast, facing down environmentalists and local officials worried about safety from accidents and terrorism.

Sempras Energia Costa LNG Plant

Sempra's Energia Costa LNG Plant

Sempra Energy just opened the first West Coast LNG facility off Baja Mexico, where the locals proved a little more pliable. The first shipments are due in March 2009. The Baja plant is already fully contracted, meaning the developers of such plants will continue to push for sites off California.

Wouldn’t it be the height of irony if Sarah Palin, scourge of environmentalists, became the hero of West Coast activists trying to block LNG?

Sarah Knows Gas

Posted in Energy, Lobbying, Sarah Palin with tags , , on August 31, 2008 by John Stodder
Official Portrait of Gov. Palin

Official Portrait of Gov. Palin

Governor Sarah Palin might not know much about the array of issues she would face if she were to become president.  But there is one major issue about which she can claim expertise beyond that of Joe Biden, Barack Obama or John McCain, and that’s oil and gas.

From Fortune.com:

Once in office, Palin took an aggressive stance toward the oil companies. Her nickname from high-school basketball, “Sarah Barracuda,” was resurrected in the press. Early in her term, she shocked oil lobbyists when she was so bold as to not show up when Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson came to Juneau to meet with her. Palin, after scrapping (Governor) Murkowski’s deal, would not give Big Oil the terms they wanted, yet insisted that the companies still had an obligation under their lease to deliver gas to whatever pipeline Alaska built. She invited the oil companies to place open bids to build a pipeline, but they refused. A bid by TransCanada, North America’s largest pipeline builder, was approved by the legislature in August.

Palin also raised taxes on oil companies after Murkowski’s previous tax regime produced falling revenues in 2007, despite skyrocketing oil prices. Alaska now has some of the highest resource taxes in the world. Alaska’s oil tax revenues are expected to be about $10 billion in 2008, twice those of previous year. BP says about half its oil revenues now go to taxes, when royalty payments to the state are included. Earlier this week, Palin approved gas tax relief for Alaskans, and paid every resident $1,200 to help ease their fuel-price burden.

Palin’s nomination is going to open a lot of eyes to the complex relationship between Alaska and the energy corporations.  I don’t think there is anything remotely like it elsewhere in the US.

A lot of her reputation for fighting corruption came from her criticisms of back-room deals between the state’s Republican establishment and the energy firms.  As the article points out, Palin doesn’t fit into the schema of current political discourse on Big Oil. She’s not for or against them. She seems to respect them, but not trust them.

Greenin’ Ain’t Easy

Posted in Energy with tags , on August 27, 2008 by John Stodder
Green Energy Enabler

Green Energy Enabler

Last night, one of the least remarkable passages of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s speech was this one:

I ran for President to renew the promise of America…. To promote a clean energy economy that will create millions of green collar jobs.

This is one idea almost everyone running for office can rally around. It combines three extremely appealing concepts: Energy independence, alleviating global warming and the prospect of “millions” of good-paying jobs that don’t exist now.

Anyone who has worked in energy knows, however, that if it was easy to provide the amount and quality of energy the world is accustomed to without having to pollute the planet or transfer wealth to the Middle East, we would have it now.  Reality checks aren’t hard to find.  For example, this story from today’s New York Times:

While the United States today gets barely 1 percent of its electricity from wind turbines, many experts are starting to think that figure could hit 20 percent.

Achieving that would require moving large amounts of power over long distances, from the windy, lightly populated plains in the middle of the country to the coasts where many people live. Builders are also contemplating immense solar-power stations in the nation’s deserts that would pose the same transmission problems.

The grid’s limitations are putting a damper on such projects already. Gabriel Alonso, chief development officer of Horizon Wind Energy, the company that operates Maple Ridge, said that in parts of Wyoming, a turbine could make 50 percent more electricity than the identical model built in New York or Texas.

“The windiest sites have not been built, because there is no way to move that electricity from there to the load centers,” he said.

The basic problem is that many transmission lines, and the connections between them, are simply too small for the amount of power companies would like to squeeze through them. The difficulty is most acute for long-distance transmission, but shows up at times even over distances of a few hundred miles.

It sounds easy to fix:  Just build more transmission lines with larger capacity.  That’s not a major technological challenge.

However, it is a major business and political challenge.  As the Times points out, hundreds of companies own pieces of the grid, or the rights-of-way needed for them.  Running a chain of electric transmission towers from wind/solar resources means crossing through both private property and public nature preserves, affecting sensitive ecosystems as well as sensitive homeowners who don’t welcome their unsightly presence. Hence:

In a 2005 energy law, Congress gave the Energy Department the authority to step in to approve transmission if states refused to act. The department designated two areas, one in the Middle Atlantic States and one in the Southwest, as national priorities where it might do so; 14 United States senators then signed a letter saying the department was being too aggressive.

Energy Department leaders say that, however understandable the local concerns, they are getting in the way. “Modernizing the electric infrastructure is an urgent national problem, and one we all share,” said Kevin M. Kolevar, assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability, in a speech last year.

This is a problem, the Times says, that “politicians in Washington have long known about.”  But it harshes the clean-energy buzz to discuss it much.  Plus, it might disturb those 14 senators, who probably want to be seen during these two weeks as anything but enemies of the environment.  It would be refreshing to hear candidates talk about the obstacles to energy independence and global warming alleviation, and how they plan to address them.  Someday soon, they’ll have no choice.

Who Would Have Guessed “Offshore Drilling?”

Posted in Bush Administration, Energy with tags , on August 25, 2008 by John Stodder

A year ago, did it seem possible that one of the biggest issues in the 2008 campaign would be offshore oil drilling? And that the politically winning side of the debate would be to favor it?

Politicians from both parties feel the need to play catch-up on the offshore drilling issue.  Neither President Bush nor any of the Republican candidates expended any political capital on it.  Offshore drilling was a long-settled issue. Overwhelming majorities in the west coast states and Florida didn’t want it. End of discussion.

Now it appears the US needs more oil to offset high prices and mitigate foreign dominance of the oil markets.  Offshore drilling has become a panacea for some candidates, particularly Republicans, and a dangerous wedge issue for others, mostly Democrats.

Fortune.com’s Jon Birger weighs in with a timely observation, namely: The US doesn’t know, and hasn’t tried to figure out, whether there is enough oil in these offshore sites to make drilling worthwhile.

Under the 2005 Energy Act, the Bush Administration was supposed to conduct a 3-D seismic survey of the Outer Continental Shelf, a type of survey now in common use in the oil industry, but never conducted for these off-limits areas.  The survey hasn’t even started.

The Administration suggests Congress is to blame, because while the study was authorized, it was never funded.  However, the Administration never put a request for the funding (up to $2 billion would be needed) in its budget proposals.

Apparently, few in either party could foresee that gasoline prices might rise to a point where the perceived necessity of offshore oil drilling would change. The media didn’t see it coming either.

U.S. Minerals Management Services 1999 chart

U.S. Minerals Management Service's 1999 chart